Cancun Agreements save the process but leave a lot to do in Durban

After some tense final hours of negotiation, the world has a new agenda on climate change in the form of the 'Cancun Agreements'.

Amid last minute objections from Bolivia and rapturous standing ovations from other delegates, the current UNFCCC President, Mexican Environmental Minister Patricia Espinosa, brought down the gavel at around 4am Saturday morning (Mexican time).

Most countries are taking the view that the agreements aren’t perfect but they are the best that could be achieved: a stepping stone towards a legally binding deal and a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol in next year’s talks in Durban. But Bolivia warned that the ambition in the current agreement is insufficient to limit global warming to a safe level.

There were acrimonious scenes at Copenhagen last year, but most countries said the Cancun conference had restored their faith in the multilateral process. We won’t know until December 2011 if that process can really deliver what’s needed.

What’s been agreed?

Emissions targets
Most scientists agree global temperature rises must stay below 2C, and the Cancun Agreements have reinforced this figure. But the Agreements are vague on how this can be achieved, and while earlier rounds of the Agreements text called for a 50 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050 (based on 1990 levels), the final draft watered this target down to an agreement to “work towards identifying a global goal”.

The gap between what’s pledged and what science says is needed to stop catastrophic climate change is pretty scary. What’s needed now is timely and committed action to get to grips with this gap and set some effective emissions-cutting targets.

Kyoto Protocol
With countries like Japan threatening to pull out of the Kyoto Protocol, the UK was key in brokering discussions around developing a second commitment period (the current one ends in 2012). The range of emissions reduction targets for specific countries covered by the Kyoto Protocol by 2020 are a good start. There was also a general consensus to ensure there will be no gap between the first and second commitment periods, although the details weren’t set in stone.

Finance
A Global Climate Fund will be set up under the auspices of the COP - a significant step forward that will build much-needed trust for next year. There’s still much to do on long-term finance, but at least the poorest now know that the outline of the fund is a reality.
A Cancun Adaptation Framework is to be set up to help poor countries adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. The recognition of the need to look closely at adaptation for poor nations is a welcome development which will be fleshed out by COP17. Meanwhile, the split of funding is currently weighted towards mitigation - (e.g. rich countries reducing their carbon emissions) but there must be an agreement on a 50:50 split between mitigation and adaptation, if those directly affected by climate change are going to receive sufficient funding.

$100bn was pledged at Copenhagen. But worryingly there hasn’t been agreement on innovative finance mechanisms, or a review of the scale of financing needed by the poorest nations. And the agreement specifies a mix of public and private funding, even though public funding sources are the only secure revenue flow for poor people.

Worryingly, it’s still very unclear whether long-term financing will be in addition to existing aid budgets. Climate change is an additional burden for poor nations, not one that replaces the need for support on health, education, human rights and emergencies. Therefore climate finance must be in addition to all development aid money currently agreed.